RPO, HPO & storage obligations — plan vs. reality, state by state
The notified renewable, hydro, distributed-RE and storage obligations out to FY30 with Growthifye's pathway to 2047, how much each state actually met, what compliance costs (RECs, green tariffs, storage) and the average power purchase cost the obligation is priced against.
FY26 obligation
33.01%
wind 1.45 · HPO 0.6 · DRE 1.5 · ESO 2
FY30 notified
43.33%
MoP RCO, Oct-2023
States compliant
5 / 22
met ≥100% of FY24 obligation
Avg APPC
₹4.52
per kWh, latest SERC orders
Growthifye takeaways · 2026-09-07
- Only KA, RJ, TN, GJ & HP meet FY25 RPO target of 29.91%; 17 states lag, exposing DISCOMs to EC Act penalties (₹10L+₹0.10/kWh) from FY25.
- ESO obligation jumps from 1% (FY24) to 4% by FY30 - C&I and developers should lock BESS capacity now at ₹2.0-2.4 lakh/MW/month before costs escalate.
- REC trades at ₹320, far below ₹1000 forbearance and cheaper than state shortfall penalties (₹0.10-0.50/kWh); developers can monetize surplus RE via RECs efficiently.
- DRE obligation debuts FY25 (0.5%) and scales to 4.5% by FY30, signalling strong rooftop/distributed RE push - C&I buyers should prioritize behind-the-meter and green tariff deals now.
Obligation as % of consumption · stacked · shaded rows are scenarios
- Distributed RE
- ESO (storage, separate)
- HPO (hydro)
- Other RE (solar etc.)
- Wind
| FY | Wind | HPO | DRE | Other | Total | ESO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY23 | 0.81 | 0.35 | 0 | 23.44 | 24.61% | 0% |
| FY24 | 1.6 | 0.66 | 0 | 24.81 | 27.08% | 1% |
| FY25 | 0.67 | 0.38 | 0.5 | 28.36 | 29.91% | 1.5% |
| FY26 | 1.45 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 29.46 | 33.01% | 2% |
| FY27 | 1.97 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 30.68 | 35.95% | 2.5% |
| FY28 | 2.45 | 1 | 3.5 | 31.86 | 38.81% | 3% |
| FY29 | 2.95 | 1.15 | 4 | 33.26 | 41.36% | 3.5% |
| FY30 | 3.48 | 1.33 | 4.5 | 34.02 | 43.33% | 4% |
| FY32* | 4.5 | 1.8 | 5.5 | 38.2 | 50% | 6% |
| FY37* | 6 | 2.2 | 7 | 44.8 | 60% | 9% |
| FY42* | 7.5 | 2.5 | 8.5 | 51.5 | 70% | 12% |
| FY47* | 9 | 3 | 10 | 58 | 80% | 15% |
* scenario rows — India has no notified obligation beyond FY30; Growthifye extends the curve on the CEA optimal-mix and Viksit Bharat 2047 pathway.
Growthifye estimate — notified figures summarised from MoP orders; FY32–FY47 rows are Growthifye scenarios, not notified targets. Realised compliance and APPC are Growthifye estimates compiled from MNRE/SERC filings, for guidance only — verify against the latest state order before relying on them.
Growthifye estimate — for guidance only. Figures are compiled from public sources and Growthifye's own models and may be incomplete, outdated or inaccurate. Growthifye Advisory, its directors, employees, partners, associates and affiliates accept no responsibility or liability for the accuracy of this data or for any decision, loss or damage arising from its use; users indemnify Growthifye against any such claim. Verify with the procurer, regulatory commission or official notification before relying on any figure. Not investment, legal or tax advice.