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TE↔SMM spread: -35.07% · ⚠ aberration — sources diverging, blend in use

What changed this month — why the cell & container prices moved

GFY LFP cell index — lithium → $/kWh pass-through+7.4% vs 7 GWh anchor @ 100 MWh

Policy-adjusted OLS: cell $/kWh deflated by announced levies, regressed on 45-day lagged Li₂CO₃ (USD/MT) + LME copper (lag auto-selected), then re-inflated by today's policy pass-through ×1.054. R² = 0.973 over 157 observations.

This is NOT price discovery. The GFY indices are statistical correlations/regressions over published market series, intended purely as directional reference. Growthifye shall not be accountable if these figures are relied upon for any commercial decision, bid, purchase order or contract.

The same 314Ah cell trades at very different prices depending on volume, contract structure, delivery timing and who is buying. The GFY index is now Cell $/kWh = (a + b·Li₂CO₃[t−45 d] + c·Cu + d·Output) × (1 + Σ policy pass-through) — lag auto-selected from 45/60/75/90 days by best fit (R² 0.973, adj. R² 0.9725, n 157); today's policy multiplier ×1.054.

Monthly China battery output improves the fit and is in the equation.

LFP container BESS — China ex-factory (EXW) prices & GFY index China 7 GWh government auction96/100CNESA / BNEF / EESA market reports85/100+7.4% vs 7 GWh anchor @ 100 MWh

Regression on lagged lithium + copper — R² = 0.9382. 5.015 MWh (20-ft class) container estimate below.

India landed ≈ $101.48/kWh · $508,916 per 5.015 MWh container. Fully inclusive price landed at the customer's destination gate — all duties, freight and GST included. The detailed cost build-up is a Growthifye team service — talk to us for a line-by-line landed costing.

This is NOT price discovery. The GFY indices are statistical correlations/regressions over published market series, intended purely as directional reference. Growthifye shall not be accountable if these figures are relied upon for any commercial decision, bid, purchase order or contract.

Sodium-ion vs LFP — live economicsBloombergNEF96/100Na-ion +12.2% vs LFP cell

Sodium-ion cells still price above hyper-scaled LFP today — parity is projected at GWh volumes (~2027-28, $40-50/kWh). Na-ion already wins on temperature tolerance, safety and China-independence; LFP wins today's $/kWh. This spread updates live with both trackers.

Copper — LME vs Indian mandi & pass-through LME98/100eNAM / Indian mandi trade data74/100

Dollar impact — USD/INR (RBI, 3Y) on landed pricingRBI reference rate99/100

USD/INR per RBI reference-rate proxy (3Y weekly). A weaker rupee claws back part of the $ price decline — every ₹1 move on USD/INR ≈ 1.06% on landed cost.

Solar modules — DCR vs Non-DCR (India) & China gapNISE / OPIS module price monitor88/100PVInfoLink / CMM90/100

Mono PERC 550 Wp+ and TOPCon 640/710 Wp channel quotes, ₹/Wp ex-factory. 3-year weekly movement with ALMM/duty events annotated.

This is NOT price discovery. The GFY indices are statistical correlations/regressions over published market series, intended purely as directional reference. Growthifye shall not be accountable if these figures are relied upon for any commercial decision, bid, purchase order or contract.

OLS linear trend fitted on the daily history, tilted by a macro/micro adjustment (supply-demand, duties, auction anchoring, substitution) compounding monthly; 95% band widens with the square root of the horizon.

This is NOT price discovery. The GFY indices are statistical correlations/regressions over published market series, intended purely as directional reference. Growthifye shall not be accountable if these figures are relied upon for any commercial decision, bid, purchase order or contract.

MOOWR & the customs-duty deferment question

The Manufacturing & Other Operations in Warehouse Regulations (MOOWR, 2019) allowed import duty deferment on capital goods and inputs brought into a bonded warehouse — widely used by solar and BESS developers to defer basic customs duty on imported cells, modules and containers. Following findings of abuse — units availing deferment on goods that were effectively deployed for power generation rather than manufacturing — the Finance Act amendments and subsequent CBIC positions excluded power-generation use-cases, and MOOWR is no longer considered a route for postponement of customs duty on BESS/solar generation assets. Practical implication: landed-cost models for imported LFP containers must carry full BCD + cess on arrival; duty deferment should not be assumed in bids.

Sources & methodology

This is NOT price discovery. The GFY indices are statistical correlations/regressions over published market series, intended purely as directional reference. Growthifye shall not be accountable if these figures are relied upon for any commercial decision, bid, purchase order or contract.