GFY Market Pulse
Battery & grid commodity tracker
As of 2026-08-29 19:35 UTC · USD/CNY 6.7421 · USD/INR 95.5339● auto-refreshed daily 02:40 UTCfree views left this week: 4
Source credit: SMM · LME · eNAM · RBI · PVInfoLink/CMM · BloombergNEF · CNESA · IEEMA — credibility scores on every section & full methodology at the bottom.
New · updated daily
BESS Industry Intel → CATL stacked containers, Cat-1/Cat-2 OEMs, CEA rulebook, India readiness
New · updated daily
Solar Industry Intel → China reliance, rare earths, recycling, LFP vs sodium-ion
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Sign in to set alerts on any tracker — LFP cells, BESS, sodium-ion, lithium, copper, modules or USD/INR.
Lithium carbonate — China spot
SMM (Shanghai Metals Market)92/100¥67,207.54
CNY / MT
$9,968.3
USD / MT (live FX)
GFY LFP cell index — lithium → $/kWh pass-through+7.4% vs 7 GWh anchor @ 100 MWh
OLS regression of LFP cell $/kWh on 45-day lagged Li₂CO₃ (USD/MT) + LME copper. R² = 0.9967 over 126 observations.
$49.56
regression fair value $/kWh @ 100 MWh
$46.83
market print $/kWh (7 GWh auction-class)
$49.80
314Ah cell (1.0048 kWh)
$52.28
India landed incl. duties @ 100 MWh
Live market anchors (calibrating the GFY cell index)
$47/kWh
China 7 GWh government auction — discovered LFP cell price
$49–50/kWh
Indian buyers signing 314Ah cells (excl. 5% BCD + 10% SWS on BCD)
≈ $52.22/kWh
India landed incl. duties — India landed = signing price × (1 + BCD 5% × (1 + SWS 10%)) = ×1.055
This is NOT price discovery. The GFY indices are statistical correlations/regressions over published market series, intended purely as directional reference. Growthifye shall not be accountable if these figures are relied upon for any commercial decision, bid, purchase order or contract.
LFP container BESS — China system prices & GFY index China 7 GWh government auction96/100CNESA / BNEF / EESA market reports85/100+7.4% vs 7 GWh anchor @ 100 MWh
Regression on lagged lithium + copper — R² = 0.9914. 5.015 MWh (20-ft class) container estimate below.
$70.66
regression fair value $/kWh (DC) @ 100 MWh
$66.79
market print $/kWh (7 GWh auction-class)
$354,366
5.015 MWh container (indicative)
This is NOT price discovery. The GFY indices are statistical correlations/regressions over published market series, intended purely as directional reference. Growthifye shall not be accountable if these figures are relied upon for any commercial decision, bid, purchase order or contract.
Procuring BESS? Growthifye runs cell-to-container price benchmarking, vendor RFQs and techno-commercial evaluation for you.
Talk to GrowthifyeSodium-ion vs LFP — live economicsBloombergNEF96/100Na-ion +10.6% vs LFP cell
$51.79
sodium-ion cell $/kWh -8% 1y -44.4% 3y
$46.83
LFP cell $/kWh (GFY index, today)
Sodium-ion cells still price above hyper-scaled LFP today — parity is projected at GWh volumes (~2027-28, $40-50/kWh). Na-ion already wins on temperature tolerance, safety and China-independence; LFP wins today's $/kWh. This spread updates live with both trackers.
Full LFP vs sodium-ion economics → Solar IntelCopper — LME vs Indian mandi & pass-through LME98/100eNAM / Indian mandi trade data74/100
$9,404.49
LME USD/MT -0.55% 1d
₹793.38
Indian mandi INR/kg
Today's estimated impact:
Cables -0.286% · Transformers -0.335%
IEEMA-weight pass-through: cables ≈52% copper share; transformers ≈30% copper + 25% CRGO
Buying cables or transformers at scale? We negotiate IEEMA-indexed contracts and time your procurement against the copper curve.
Talk to GrowthifyeDollar impact — USD/INR (RBI, 3Y) on landed pricingRBI reference rate99/100
₹95.6
USD/INR now +8.2% 1y +15.4% 3y
₹82.87
3 years ago
1.05%
landed-cost impact per ₹1 move
Worked example — BESS container over 3 years
$ price: $131.07 → $66.96/kWh (-48.9%) · USD/INR: ₹82.87 → ₹95.6 (+15.4%) · net ₹ cost: ₹10,862 → ₹6,401/kWh (-41.1%). Rupee depreciation clawed back 7.8 pp of the dollar-price decline.
USD/INR per RBI reference-rate proxy (3Y weekly). A weaker rupee claws back part of the $ price decline — every ₹1 move on USD/INR ≈ 1.05% on landed cost.
Solar modules — DCR vs Non-DCR (India) & China gapNISE / OPIS module price monitor88/100PVInfoLink / CMM90/100
Mono PERC 550 Wp+ and TOPCon 640/710 Wp channel quotes, ₹/Wp ex-factory. 3-year weekly movement with ALMM/duty events annotated.
TOPCon 640/710 Wp — Non-DCR
₹14.14/Wp
≈ $0.148/Wp
-1.1% 90d +3.3% 1y -31.8% 3y
+6m anticipated ≈ ₹15.1/Wp
TOPCon 640/710 Wp — DCR
₹24.5/Wp
≈ $0.2565/Wp
+5.4% 90d +6.5% 1y -6.5% 3y
+6m anticipated ≈ ₹27.2/Wp
Mono PERC 550 Wp+ — Non-DCR
₹17.34/Wp
≈ $0.1815/Wp
+0.1% 90d +1.9% 1y -24.7% 3y
+6m anticipated ≈ ₹17.7/Wp
Mono PERC 550 Wp+ — DCR
₹23.32/Wp
≈ $0.2441/Wp
+1.2% 90d +3.8% 1y -7.9% 3y
+6m anticipated ≈ ₹25/Wp
- DCR Mono PERC
- DCR TOPCon
- Non-DCR Mono PERC
- Non-DCR TOPCon
Policy events → measured price correlation (avg 4 weeks after vs 4 weeks before)
2023-04-01 · ALMM enforcement suspended for FY24Import floodgates opened — non-DCR module prices slid with the global glut
2024-04-01 · ALMM List-I re-enforced-0.8%Domestic (ALMM-listed) module prices firmed as government projects locked out imports
2024-12-07 · ALMM List-II (DCR cells) notified+0%DCR premium started widening on anticipated domestic-cell shortage (~31 GW cell vs ~193 GW module capacity)
2026-04-26 · 18.7% anti-dumping duty on Chinese TOPCon/HJT modules+2.9%Landed cost of Chinese modules stepped up — non-DCR quotes firmed off their floor
2026-06-01 · ALMM List-II effective — DCR cells mandatory+1.5%DCR cell shortage spiked DCR module prices to a 70–100% premium over non-DCR
China vs India — same module, what's the gap? (academic view)
$0.1093/Wp
China TOPCon EXW (CMM) +12.1% 1y · cells $0.0289/Wp
₹16.95/Wp
China landed in India: EXW + 40% BCD + 18.7% anti-dumping + freight ($0.004/Wp)
+35.4%
India non-DCR (₹14.14) vs China EXW (₹10.44)
+134.7%
India DCR TOPCon (₹24.5) vs China EXW — the DCR premium
India–China module gap (academic view): Chinese TOPCon EXW is the global floor price. To land it in India add 40% BCD (modules, Apr-2022), 18.7% anti-dumping duty on Chinese TOPCon/HJT (Apr-2026) and freight — and even then, non-ALMM modules are locked out of government/open-access projects. ALMM List-I (2021) gates modules; ALMM List-II (effective Jun-2026) gates the cells inside them. That regulatory stack, not manufacturing cost, is most of the India–China price gap.
This is NOT price discovery. The GFY indices are statistical correlations/regressions over published market series, intended purely as directional reference. Growthifye shall not be accountable if these figures are relied upon for any commercial decision, bid, purchase order or contract.
Buying modules DCR or non-DCR? Growthifye benchmarks vendor quotes against this tracker and times your procurement around ALMM/duty events.
Talk to GrowthifyePrice anticipation — macro & micro adjusted forecast
Lithium carbonate (China) · +6m
¥51,938.76
now ¥67,207.54 · band 48,302.57–55,574.95 CNY/MT
≈ $7,703.6/MT
trend -3.26%/m · macro tilt -0.3%/m
LFP cell · +6m
$44.04
now $46.83 · band 43.15–44.94 $/kWh
314Ah cell ≈ $44.25
trend -0.73%/m · macro tilt -0.25%/m
BESS container · +6m
$63.13
now $66.79 · band 61.92–64.34 $/kWh
5.015 MWh ≈ $316,618 · India landed ≈ $/kWh
trend -0.68%/m · macro tilt -0.2%/m
Copper LME · +6m
$10,066.86
now $9,404.49 · band 9,591.12–10,542.59 USD/MT
trend 0.44%/m · macro tilt +0.45%/m
Pulling prices UP
Indian ALMM-BESS localisation & duty protection — BCD + SWS and domestic-content rules lift landed and domestic prices
Lithium supply curtailments (China lepidolite / Africa permitting) — Marginal-cost producers shutting in supports Li₂CO₃
Copper demand from grids, EVs & AI datacentres — Structural copper deficit pressures cables & transformers
Grid-scale storage demand outgrowing cell capacity additions — Order books at top-tier LFP makers stretching lead times
Pulling prices DOWN
China cell manufacturing overcapacity — Utilisation below 60% keeps EXW cell pricing competitive
Government auction anchoring ($47/kWh discovered) — Sovereign tenders reset market expectations downwards
Sodium-ion & LMFP substitution at the margin — Alternative chemistries cap LFP pricing power
Freight & logistics normalisation — Container rates easing reduces CIF premiums
OLS linear trend fitted on the daily history, tilted by a macro/micro adjustment (supply-demand, duties, auction anchoring, substitution) compounding monthly; 95% band widens with the square root of the horizon.
This is NOT price discovery. The GFY indices are statistical correlations/regressions over published market series, intended purely as directional reference. Growthifye shall not be accountable if these figures are relied upon for any commercial decision, bid, purchase order or contract.
IEEMA price-variation calculator
P = P₀ × (fixed + Σ wᵢ × indexᵢ(date required)/indexᵢ(quote date)) — copper & CRGO indices are picked from the daily tracker for the two dates you choose, so you see the exact impact of the gap.
Current indices: copper:9600 · crgo:2450 · oil:86 · insulation:100 · wpi:155 · xlpe:118 · aluminium:2650
Need a transformer / cable price validated against IEEMA variation before you sign? Our engineering & supply-chain desk will do it in 48 hours.
Talk to GrowthifyeMOOWR & the customs-duty deferment question
The Manufacturing & Other Operations in Warehouse Regulations (MOOWR, 2019) allowed import duty deferment on capital goods and inputs brought into a bonded warehouse — widely used by solar and BESS developers to defer basic customs duty on imported cells, modules and containers. Following findings of abuse — units availing deferment on goods that were effectively deployed for power generation rather than manufacturing — the Finance Act amendments and subsequent CBIC positions excluded power-generation use-cases, and MOOWR is no longer considered a route for postponement of customs duty on BESS/solar generation assets. Practical implication: landed-cost models for imported LFP containers must carry full BCD + cess on arrival; duty deferment should not be assumed in bids.
Sources & methodology
This is NOT price discovery. The GFY indices are statistical correlations/regressions over published market series, intended purely as directional reference. Growthifye shall not be accountable if these figures are relied upon for any commercial decision, bid, purchase order or contract.